Weekly Economic Indicators

Select Economic Indicators for the Week Ending 11th September 2009

Unemployment Rate

Date: 4th Sep 2009

Previous: 9.4% 2
Forecasted: 9.5 %2
Impact: High


The unemployment rate is a leading indicator of economic health and well being in the country and tends to affect USD values strongly. The forecasted consensus suggests a marginal increase which is unlikely to lend any further assistance to the USD. In turn, falling wages and declining payroll will likely adversely affect consumer confidence and lead to poor consumer spending.

Consumer Credit
Date: 8th Sep 2009
Previous: -5.4B 1
Forecasted: -4.0B2
Impact: Moderate
Consumer credit is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which in turn represents the overall income trends. Rising credit levels show how comfortable lenders are in issuing loans and how confident consumers are of their financial position. A falling consumer credit number will lead to a downturn in USD values across the board, other things being equal. This time around, an improvement is expected, which should help the USD somewhat, if other higher impact indicators do not supersede.

Crude Oil Inventories
Date: 10th Sep 2009
Previous:
Forecasted:
Impact: High
Crude oil is a leading indicator for the US dollar and widely used as a bellwether for inflationary pressures. When crude oil inventories are low (or fall), they tend to exert higher pressure on the US dollar reducing values. An interesting aspect of this indicator can be seen in the play of the USD/CAD pair, as the US is a major importer of Canadian oil.
Although consensus estimates are unavailable, traders must watch out for this indicator and make trade plays accordingly for its high impact.

Trade Balance
Date: 10th Sep 2009
Previous: -27.0B2
Forecasted: -27.0B 2
Impact: Moderate

Expectations of trade balance lend moderate influence on USD prices. This time around, we are unlikely to see a significant impact on the USD as consensus estimates are unchanged at $27 billion trade deficit.

Fed Budget Balance
Date: 11th Sep 2009
Previous: -180.7B3
Forecasted: -172.3B3
Impact: Moderate

Fed budget balances have a moderate impact on USD prices, although in April it has a higher impact due to tax payments throughout the US. A higher budget deficit signals a general negativity in budget planning and economic health, if tax collections are low. The forecasted budget deficit has improved somewhat since the last release so it would be interesting to see how far it can take the USD, if at all.