Technical Analysis

Starting with the eur/usd, if price holds above Main Pivot – 1.3249, target would be at Resistance R1 – 1.3284 and the second objective would be at Resistance R2 – 1.3322. If price rebounds after reaching one of those resistances, it can approach Support S1 – 1.3211. Based on our conclusion for each indicator we are expecting a bullish trend.

After that, according to our outlook for the usd/jpy, price is approaching Resistance R1 – 77.258 and break above this is indicating next objective Resistance R2 – 77.458. If price rebounds from the 1^st resistance, it would retest Main Pivot – 76.979. A vast majority of our indicators expect a bullish trend.

Next stop is the gbp/usd outlook; it seems price is rebounding and if it breaks above Main Pivot – 1.5843 targets, we’ll be at Resistance R1 – 1.5892. On the other hand, if price rebounds from Main Pivot – 1.5843 it would focus again on Support S1 – 1.5759. Based on our chosen indicators and chat analysis, we can assume a bullish trend.

Finally, our outlook for the usd/chf, price is heading towards Support S1 – 0.9108 where it would rebound and continue consolidation. Target would be at main Pivot – 0.9129 and sustain rise could approach Resistance R1 – 0.9153. The vast majority of our indicators for the usd/chf, shows a bearish trend.

Fundamental Analysis

National Statistic would release monthly figures about Manufacturing Production in the United Kingdom at 09:30 GMT. In previous month, Manufacturing Production declined by 0.2%. Analysts are expecting a rise by 0.3% and a high impact on the Sterling. Bank of England is going to release monthly statistics about assets purchase facility at 12:00 GMT. Economists are awaiting increase from 275B to 325B in quantitative easing mode programme.

In addition, high impact on the Sterling can be expected. Bank of England would also report monthly figures about official bank rates at 12:00 GMT. It is expected that interest rates would remain at 0.50% and a high impact on the Sterling. Also European central Bank would report monthly numbers regarding to Minimum Bid rate at 12:45 GMT. Analysts are expecting that Interest Rate would be kept at 1.00%. Moreover, high impact on the Euro can be awaited.

Weekly statistic about the unemployment claims in the United States would be release by the Department of labor at 13:30 GMT. Last week, unemployment claims declined to 367K, but it is expected to increase to 380K this week. Analysts are expecting a high impact on the dollar.

Despite all the positive data coming out on U.S. employment, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the United States job market is far from healthy. The result in confusion leads to a weaker dollar that was further weakened by Greece’s successive attempt to pay off its debts. Wall Street closed positive as the S&P increased by 0.20% and the DOW by 0.26%. Crude oil closed at $98.41/barrel and gold by $1,748.40/ounce. No major economic data is expected today.

The Euro rose to its highest level in 8-weeks against the United States dollar as Greek officials work on the final budget agreement for the second aid package. The eur/usd momentum is positive above 1.3200 and as long as the pair is trading above this level, the Euro may continue to rise and would in all probability break-up to the next resistance level at 1.3320. A trend supported by the RSI indicator on a daily chart. Overall, the eur/usd traded with a low of 1.3089 and a high of 1.3269. No major economic data is expected today.

The British Pound strengthened versus the U.S. dollar following Greece’s agreement, which lead investors to prefer high yielding assets. The gbp/usd momentum is bullish above 1.5860; next resistance on the daily chart is at 1.6000. Breaking this level would probably cause the British Pound to increase to 1.6040. Overall, the gbp/usd trade with a low of 1.5788 and a high of 1.5904. No major economic data is expected today.

The Japanese Yen fell as higher yielding currencies and commodities closed high following the good news from Greece. The usd/jpy momentum is bullish, as long as the pair is trading above 76.50, next resistance is at 77.00. Overall, the usd/jpy traded with a low of 76.52 and a high of 76.96. No major economic data is expected today.

The Canadian dollar advanced versus the United States dollar as commodities closed positive, next support level on the 1-hour chart is at 0.9920. Breaking this would probably result in a decrease downward to 0.9870. Overall, the usd/cad traded with a low of 0.9940 and a high of 0.9995. Today’s Housing Starts are expected at 193K versus 200K prior.

Technical Analysis

Looking at the Technical outlook for the eur/usd, if price declines below Main Pivot – 1.3094, we can expect decline towards Support S1 – 1.3049. Price would then probably decline slightly below Support and then rebound can focus back on Main Pivot and possible then Resistance R1 – 1.3163. Based on the conclusions for each indication, we are expecting a bearish trend today.

Our outlook for the usd/jpy, price would touch Resistance R1 – 76.611 soon, and rise above this level would be suggesting target at Resistance R2 – 76.919. If price would be limited at current resistance, we can expect decline towards Main Pivot – 76.611 and deeper decline isn’t excluded. A vast majority of our indicators expect a bearish trend today.

Our next stop is the gbp/usd outlook; falling price would probably break below Main Pivot – 1.5793 and target would be at Support S1 – 1.5746, where price would probably rebound but further fall isn’t excluded. On the hand, rebound from Main Pivot – 1.5793 would negate previous conclusion and price would focus on Resistance R1 – 1.5857. Based on our chosen indicators and analysis, we can expect a bearish trend.

Finally, our outlook for the usd/chf pair shows price would test Main Pivot – 0.9207 soon and break above would be suggesting rise and sustained upward move could reach Resistance R1 – 0.9245. On the other hand, if price bounces it would focus back on Support S1 – 0.9161 with possible subsequent target at Support S2 – 0.9127. A vast majority of our indicators and chart analysis for the usd/chf shows a bearish trend.

Fundamental Analysis

The German Industrial Production data would be released around 11:00 GMT and also expecting increase from -0.6% to -0.1% and a medium impact on the Euro.

The Ministry of Finance would report monthly statistics regarding Japan’s Current account at 23:50 GMT. In the previous month, Current Account recorded surplus at ¥0.48T and now economist are awaiting increase and surplus at ¥0.63T. In addition low impact on the Japanese Yen can be expected.

The United States dollar traded mixed against the major currencies, after the U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast. The unemployment rate came out at 8.30% better than the expected 8.50%. Wall Street closed positive as the S&P increased by 1.46% and the DOW leaped by 1.23%. Crude increased by 1.50% to close at $97.84/Barrel and gold fell by $34.00 to finish at $1,725.70/Ounce. The Euro weakened against the dollar as no agreement was reached over the Greek debt crisis; also Retail Sales came out -0.40% worse than expected. The eur/usd continues to struggle between 1.3220 and 1.3020, with no specific trend in evidence. Overall, the pair traded with a low of 1.3065 and a high of 1.3205.

The British Pound strengthened a little against the United States dollar after Service PMI came out 56.0 better than expected 53.5. The gbp/usd momentum remains bullish as long as the rate remains above 1.5750. Overall, the pair traded with a low of 1.5749 and a high of 1.5859. Today’s BRC Retail Sales monitor is expected to come out -0.80% versus 2.20% previously.

The Japanese Yen fell against the United States dollar after U.S. employers added more jobs than forecast. The usd/jpy momentum is bearish as long as the pair is trading below 76.80; the next support is at 76.00. Overall the pair traded with a low of 76.13 and a high of 76.72. No economic data is expected today.

Finally the Canadian dollar rose against the greenback as stronger economic data from the nation’s biggest trade partner helped fuel appetite for riskier assets. Employment change came out 2.3K worse than expected and the Unemployment rate rose from 7.5% to 7.6%. Overall, the pair trade with a low of 0.9924 and a high of 1.0032.

The United States dollars weakened against the other major currencies as negative U.S. Manufacturing data failed expectations dampening demand for safer assets. Wall Street closed positive as S&P increased by 0.89% and the DOW by 0.66%. Crude decreased by 0.90% closing at $97.61/barrel, Gold strengthened by 0.35% to finish at $1,734.55. We await the release of Initial Jobless Claims, which came out at 373K versus last week’s 377K.

The Euro rose against the dollar as manufacturing came out better than analysts estimated, adding signs that Europe’s economy is stabilizing. The eur/usd momentum is positive above 1.3080. As long as the pair is trading above this, the Euro may continue to rise. Overall, the eur/usd traded with a low of 1.3026 and a high of 1.3218. No major economic data is expected today.

The British Pound strengthened against the United States dollar to close on a 2 ½ month high as manufacturing PMI in the United Kingdom came out better than expected. As long as the gbp/usd is trading above 1.5750, the British Pound momentum continues to be bullish. Overall, the gbp/usd traded with a low of 1.5706 and a high of 1.5882. Today, Construction PMI is expected at 52.8 versus 53.2 prior.

The Japanese Yen strengthened against the United States dollar for a 5^th day as a weaker Greenback lead investors to stay with the Japanese Yen. The usd/jpy momentum is bearish, so long as it’s trading below 76.50. Overall, the usd/jpy traded with a low of 76.02 and a high of 76.35. No economic data is expected today.

Finally, the Canadian dollar rose versus the United States dollar as stocks and other risky currencies closed positive, making high yielding assets the more attractive. As long as the usd/cad is trading below 1.0070, the United States dollar momentum is always negative. Overall, the usd/cad traded with a low of 0.9963 and the height of 1.0048. No economic data is expected today.

The United States dollar traded mixed against the major currencies after paired earlier losses as stocks fell after Consumer Confidence and business activities in the United States was weaker than forecast in January. Consumer Confidence unexpectedly dropped to 61.1 as gas prices picked up and more Americans said jobs are hard to get.

Wall Street closed mixed as the S&P decrease by 0.05% and the Nasdaq rose by 0.07%. Crude oil closed bat $98.30/barrel and Gold by $1,737.00/ounce. The Euro fell versus the United States dollar as investors speculated European Policy Makers won’t be able to reach an agreement regarding Greece’s debt obligations. That would of course increase the number of Portuguese banks on credit watch negative. The eur/usd momentum is negative, below 1.3080 and as long as the pair is trading below this level, the euro may continue to decline. Overall, the eur/usd traded with a low of 1.3041 and a high of 1.3188.

The British Pound strengthened to a 10-week high against the United States dollar, as long as the gbp/usd is trading above 1.5600 the Sterling’s momentum continues to be bullish. The next resistance on the daily chart is at 1.5770. Overall, the gbp/usd traded with a low of 1.5697 and a high of 1.5796. Today, Manufacturing PMI is expected with a 50.1 versus 49.6 previously. The Japanese Yen traded unchanged versus the United States dollar due to the search for new intervention by investor. The usd/jpy momentum is negative as long as the pair is trading below 77.20 and only if the pair breaks above this, would the U.S. dollar be attractive again. Overall, the usd/jpy traded with a low of 76.14 and a high of 76.40, no economic data is expected today.

The Canadian dollar declined against the U.S. dollar after GDP posted an anticipated decline in November, shrinking for the first time in 6-months on maintenance shut-downs by crude oil producers and lower natural gas extractions. Overall, the usd/cad traded with a low of 0.9964 and a high of 1.0052, no economic data is expected today.

Technical Analysis

The eur/usd saw price almost reach Resistance R1 – 1.3205 and sustained rise above this level would be suggesting next target at Resistance R2 – 1.3274. Rebound from current resistance would fall towards Main Pivot – 1.3140, based on the conclusions reached and indicators used, we are expecting a bullish trend.

We expect price to almost reach Support S1 – 76.124 for the usd/jpy and price would probably continue towards Support S2 – 75.883. Deeper decline isn’t excluded and possible fall below Support S3 – 75.562 would form new record low. With conclusions made by our indicators, we expect a bearish trend today.

For the gbp/usd outlook, price is just testing Resistance R1 – 1.5735 and it seems we can expect rise above targeting at Resistance R2 – 1.5765, where price would probably form high and then we can expect correction and possibly decline towards Main Pivot – 1.5693. The summary of our indicator shows a bullish trend.

The usd/chf has seen price just reach Support S1 – 0.9132 and break below this level would focus on Support S2 – 0.9091 and further fall towards Support S3 – 0.9053 isn’t excluded. The possible rebound from current support would focus on Main Pivot – 0.9170. The vast majority of our indicators show a bearish trend.

Fundamental Analysis

Our first news for today is the German Unemployment Change at 08:55 GMT, analysts are expecting rise in unemployment from -22K to -8K jobless people and a medium impact on the Euro. Euro Stats would release monthly statistics about unemployment rate in Euro Zone at 10:00 GMT. This expected increase from 10.3% to 10.4% and a medium impact on the Euro.

Kingsbury International would report monthly survey about Chicago purchasing Managers index at 14:45 GMT. Economists are awaiting increase from 63.1 to 62.5pts. Moreover, analysts are expecting a medium impact on the U.S. dollars. The Conference Board would release monthly report regarding U.S. Consumer Confidence at 15:00 GMT. It is expected to increase from 64.5pts to 68.2pts an addition to high impact on the U.S. dollar can be awaited.

The United States dollar weakened against the other majors following the Federal Reserve pledge to keep Interest Rate low until late 2014. Wall Street closed mixed as S&P decrease by 0.16% and the Nasdaq rose by 0.40%. Crude oil jumped to its highest level since August and amidst signs that Greece is nearing an agreement with its creditors, closing at $99.56/barrel. Gold strengthened by 0.30%, reaching its highest price in the past 6-weeks to finish at $1,732.20/ounce. Today’s the Core PCE Price Index is expected to come out 0.10% unchanged. Personal Spending came out at 0.20% versus 0.10% previously & Personal Income at 0.40% versus 0.10%.

The Euro rose versus the United States dollar to close virtually unchanged as mixed U.S. data lead to instability in the path. The eur/usd momentum is positive above 1.3150 and as long as the pair’s trading remains above this, the Euro may continue to rise and in all probability breaks above 1.3300. Overall, the eur/usd traded with a low of 1.3077 and a high of 1.3233.

The British Pound advanced for a 9^th day against the United States dollar as the Federal Reserve kept U.S. Interest rate near record low. As long as the gbp/usd is trading above 1.5600, the British Pounds momentum continues to be bullish, with the next resistance level on the daily chart at 1.5770. Overall, the gbp/usd traded with a low of 1.5640 and a high of 1.5740. No economic data is expected today.

The Japanese Yen strengthened against the United States dollar as a weaker greenback resulted after the Feds pessimistic declaration. The usd/jpy momentum is negative, as long as the pair’s trading below 77.90 levels, only if the pair breaks above this would the dollar be the more attractive again. Overall, the usd/jpy traded with a low of 77.29 and a high of 77.80.

The Canadian dollar rose against the greenback as commodities gained after the Federal Reserve’s pledge. As long as the pair’s trading below 1.0060, the U.S. dollar’s momentum would remain negative, with mixed support on the 1–Hour chart at 0.9980. Overall, the usd/cad traded with a low of 0.9957 and a high of 0.0400. No economic data is expected today.

The Euro increased against the U.S. dollar for the fifth day which is the longest streak in 3-months, after it was reported that Greece is close to coming into agreement with its creditors. Greece and its private creditors indicated that it expects to accomplish a debt swap agreement in the coming week. The Euro was also supported after Italy sold bills strengthening assets of the European Central Bank to fight the debt crisis by shoring-up banks. The market is focused on whether Greece would secure its next A-package.

Last Friday, the Euro was trading at the level of 1.3217, an increase in 0.83%. The British pound rose against the United States Dollar on speculation that Greece is closer to a debt swap deal and with a weaker than anticipated data about the American GDP. Data indicated that the economy of the USA grew by 2.8% during the 4^th quarter of 2011, lower than the estimated 3%. The British Pound was last seen trading at 1.5721, an increase of 0.21%.

The Canadian dollar climbed for a third week against the United States dollar on gains in commodities after a Fed undertook to extend its free zone U.S. Interest Rates. The Canadian dollar was last seen trading at 1.0017, an increase of 0.01%.

Gold traders have been bullish for a fourth consecutive week on speculations that the pledge from the Federal Reserve to keep Interest Rate low until late 2014 would extend gains in the precious metal. Lower Interest Rate can lead to an increase in the appeal of gold bullion, because it generally earns only through price gains. Gold was last seen trading at $1,738.32/ounce, which is an increase of 1.05%.

Oil prices climbed this week on signs that Greece is nearing an accord with its creditors and on uncertainty whether tension with Iran might disrupt oil supplies. Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz after European Union announces that it would enforce an Oil embargo on the 1^st of July to increase pressure over its nuclear programme. Crude oil was last seen trading at $99.56, which is a decrease of -0.14%.

Technical Analysis

We are expecting a rise towards Resistance R1 – 1.57220 for the eur/usd, sustained rise and break at this level would target Resistance R2, between these two resistances we are expecting a possible sideways move. Based on the conclusions for each indicator and chart analysis, we are expecting a bullish trend.

For the usd/jpy, we are expecting a decline towards Support S1 – 76.996 and forward would be limited Support S2, where we can expect a rebound and more sideway moves. We predict a bearish trend today.

We expect a rise towards Resistance R1 – 1.5720 for the gbp/usd, where uptrend would probably be limited and subsequently price would fall. Decline below main Pivot – 1.5684 would be suggesting target at Support S1 – 1.5636. The summary of our indicators suggest a bullish trend.

Our final pair is usd/chf, we are expecting fall towards Support S1 – 0.9172 and possibly below. Price might reach Support S2 – 0.9127, where we are waiting rebound and retesting previous supports turning resistances. The vast majority of our indicators show a bearish trend.

Fundamental Analysis

The Japanese Leading Indicator at 06:00 GMT, analysts are expecting it to climb from 104.6% – 103.8%, and low impact on the Japanese Yen can be expected. The British National Statistic would release monthly report about PPI input at about 09:30 GMT. Analysts are expecting a rise from -1.9% – 1.3% and would have a high impact on the British Pound. The German Industrial Production is expected at 11:00 GMT, it is expected to climb from 4% – -1.5% and would have a medium impact on Euro.

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistic is going to read monthly numbers about unemployment rate at 13:30 GMT. Economists are expecting it to remain at 9.1%; analysts are assuming a high impact on the United States dollar. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistic would release monthly figures regarding Non-farm employment change at 13:30 GMT. It is expected to rise at 55K from 0, in non-farm payrolls change. High impact on the United States dollar is expected by analysts.